Conventional wisdom holds that Dave Castro, and the team behind the Open workouts, are unpredictable. Conventional wisdom also holds that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.   When it comes to anticipating Open WODs, can these be reconciled?  We examine HQ’s history of programming to arrive at predictions for the 2016 Open.  We apply a general guideline:  Any exercise in the Open must be familiar, broadly accessible and easy to judge. Familiar means known to the community, likely from a preceding competition.   We’re not going to see a javelin throw or triple jump.  Broadly accessible means you can walk into almost any random box and do it.  “The Pig” and the “Double Banger” are examples of tests that are familiar to the Community, but not accessible.  Ease of judging enables consistency across thousands of testing sites.   This is why the Open never includes running.   

We started by looking back at the past five years of Opens.   Here are the exercises that appeared in each: